There are a bunch of movies that already has exact release date in 2022. There are just so many things that can go wrong within 2 years, how is it possible that they can do that?
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Because the studio controls when it will release.
They set the date, so they know the date.
To add: If problems come up they will just change the date. Happens all the time
Have you ever planes coming a long time in advance like taking a trip or where you are going to spend a holiday? A release date for a movie is just like that.
If something goes wrong like production take longe, another film that is expected to dominate the box office has the same release date, a global pandemic you just change the date. It is rare it moves to an earlier day but not uncommon to a later.
The general idea for a long time is so the one that makes the move, plans the advertisement knows when the target date is. It is also a way for a studio to plan when their different moves should be release do the do not compete with each other and the same thing between studios because it is not in anyone interest studios or even commas that two large movies that target the same audience are release at the same day.
They control the production and want timings to relate to school holidays etc. and preferably not to clash with another similar film.
First of all, those release dates might change. They can push them back if needed.
There is a huge effort in scheduling logistics of a movie, making sure that actors and sets are available at the right time, etc. They know when the can expect shots to be finished and sent for first level editing.
The editing process can take some time, but they generally know how long it will take given the amount of effort they have asked for. They typically will also require overtime to reach a deadline.
Typically the movie should be ready well ahead of the actual release date. The few weeks before release requires actors and directors going out and doing publicity, like appearing on TV shows for interviews. Notably, if the directors are doing publicity, then they aren’t available to rule on editing.
In all of this they’ve given themselves a lot of wiggle room for minor things, so they can still make the release date. Even an 8 week shooting delay in Mission Impossible: Fallout from Tom Cruise breaking his ankle didn’t delay the release (although they did throw money at the problem to make sure they didn’t miss release).
Now, what are the advantages of having your release so far out if it’s so much work? Notably, it means other studios aren’t going to try and fight with you. There are very rarely two big movies opening simultaneously. Once one big movie has their release date, nobody else wants to lose money by opening against them.
They don’t *know* as such. But they have a pretty good idea from decades of practice and the schedule has some slack built in for when minor things do go wrong.
If something major happens (COVID-19, someone vital throws a hissy fit and storms off, the stages burn down…) then the schedule just gets changed. But since this knocks on to planning by cinemas, marketing, etc it’s generally avoided as far as possible.
They take account of things that can go wrong. If nothing goes wrong, which is quite rare, then the filming will be ahead of schedule and under budget. This will often allow them to spend more time in the post production to make the movie even better. If the movie is behind schedule the movie studio might spend more money in hopes to get back on schedule or they might rush things even more and make a lower quality movie that will hit the target date.
The target release date is usually set before the studio spends money on the movie. It is common to release blockbuster movies right before hollidays as then more people will have the time to see the movie. This is why you get summer blockbusters and christmas movies. But less popular movies might also get a lot of views if they are able to time the release date to fall between other movies. So movie studios will set target release dates years in advance and then adjust the filming of the movie to hit that date. In some cases movies might have to wait months after they are finished before they are released.
Film studios are the ones who set the release date, probably based on estimates of how long it will take to shoot and cut together, plus other factors such as what will be going on in the world at the time. Not much sense in releasing a movie the Friday of Super Bowl weekend. So it’s not like some cosmic force determines a date and the studio is forced to honor it. Besides, release dates get pushed back all the time.
Studios make movies for a living – they have a good idea how long it takes to shoot, edit, market, etc. a film to prepare it for release. Looking at the scope of a film, it isn’t hard to say “OK, 2 years is about the right timeline” From there, they can slot films into their release schedule, so they don’t have movies competing for the same market segment at the same time – maybe the movie only takes 1.5 years to finish, but two movies would be released at the same time to the same segment or they want this movie to be the summer blockbuster, so they slot it in 6 months later.
Sure, sometimes something could go wrong that would mean they miss the release date (like all the movies that are being pushed now) but then they just push the release date back – release dates aren’t contracts or anything, so if they need to push they just do it.
Another thing is that a deadline forces the production company to get it done on time. It’s like a typical person and school work. If you’re assigned to write a paper on a book that’s due sometime before graduation date, you’ll get it done right before graduation. But if it’s due on May 31 at 11:59 pm, you budget your time to get it done in time.
Cinecon. All the major studios basically collude with theater owners to determine when’s the best date for a movie to be released. Iron Man got early summer in 2008. The Dark Knight got late summer. Everyone won!
Sometimes a studio just publicly announces a date and smaller projects can’t use that date. Paramount claimed 7/4/07 BEFORE Transformers began shooting.
Edit: but to elaborate on your question, this is a first time deal, where a virus can shut down productions for months.
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